A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
